Hamilton sees value in both parties, he said, but he considers himself Democratic-leaning. Petr Svab is a reporter covering New York. To find out more about cookies and change your preferences, visit our, looked to ten allegedly bellwether counties, The Russia-Ukraine War: a challenge to international order, Global Energy Politics and Cost of Living Crisis, The New Normal: a dual track approach to health strategy and policy, Inside the Deal: how the EU got Brexit done. We need jobs up here, good-paying full-time jobs, she added. Under a changed political landscape in Ottawa County, Commissioner Mark Coppeler, a Republican, also looked at the bigger picture. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. I believe in what they call entitlement programs, Hamilton said. Fitch, who grew up in foster homes and went on to put himself through college, has owned and run the Summit Fireside Lodge and Grill for 32 years. It was easy. Shortages are all over the place, Miller said. Hes concerned about big government, burdensome regulations, and encroachments on the Constitution. He isnt so sure about Biden. Bobby Tisdell stands in front of his home in West Terre Haute, Vigo County, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. A number of fertilizer plants closed across the country last year due to natural gas shortages. I think we needed somebody like him.. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. Tisdell wanted to find out for himself, so he began to do his own research, reading mainstream news on both sides, as well as reports by independent citizen journalists. Whats happening is affecting everybody, he said. The voter shift is happening statewide, and despite Democrats having 750,000 more registered voters, Republicans have gained 75,000 since 2016, while Democrats have lost 91,000. No evidence for systematic voter fraud: A guide to statistical claims It was everything, all at once, all of a sudden. Its horrible. Itll be interesting to see who wins Sen. The registered Republican voters (8,455) outnumber the registered Democrats (6,731) in Ottawa County. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Ohios Ottawa County: Staying Afloat as One of the Top Bellwether Counties in the Country. When there was, we were making money pulling people out of ditches.. Eleven of the nineteen were located in just six Midwestern states, and Wisconsin alone is home to four, they said. We know that President Donald Trump won 18 of the 19 historic bellwether counties those that have regularly predicted the outcome of presidential contests. Logistics are a nightmare, Miller said. Review: At Fall for Dance, Resilience Takes Center Stage He was working on his neighbors lawn when he paused to talk to The Epoch Times. We have to figure out a way to control fuel prices. 2020: Trump - 54.12%, Biden - 45.20%. I hope.. Miller is often faced with tough decisions in his business. The Wall Street Journal and The Epoch Times independently analyzed the results of 19 counties around the United States that have nearly perfect presidential voting records over the last 40 years. Florida's I-4 corridor: Where presidents get picked But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. We shouldnt be fighting among each other here. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Here's why. Its just not that great, Paul said. Though Myers leans toward Trump, he hasnt made up his mind to vote for him yet; he didnt vote for Trump in 2016. Will Ohios Wood County Continue to Be a Reliable Bellwether Indicator? For example, across seven elections, we would expect to see 28 bellwether counties. Edie Martin is struggling to get her diner back in the black after being closed for almost three months over the pandemic. He loves his country to the point where he wants it to do well.. He pissed off a lot of people. I vote for whoever I think is going to do the best job, Sam added. Were going to shift from a materialistic world to a more conscious and spiritual world, he said. We are a rural county here, Hill told The Epoch Times. There Are No Bellwether Counties | HuffPost Latest News Moreover, once we allow for bellwethers to have less than perfect records of success, the expected numbers of bellwethers increases much more rapidly than most (including us) would expect. She registered as a Democrat about 40 years ago and has never bothered to change her affiliation, although she voted for Trump in 2016 and plans to do the same this year. Those counties were: Warren County, Ill. Vigo County, Ind. Paul hopes that one day he can save enough money to buy himself a car, so he can drive to Florida and reunite with his family. Mainstream polls are suggesting a Pennsylvania win for Biden, but, if the 2016 polls were anything to go by, theyre about as useful as a screen door on a submarine. I think it worked out without me.. The state as a whole is going more Republican, Wood County Board of Elections Director Julie Baumgardner told The Epoch Times. Epoch Times: "Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020" Find UFOs, The Apocalypse, New World Order, Political Analysis, Alternative Health, Armageddon, Conspiracies, Prophecies, Spirituality, Home Schooling, Home Mortgages and more, in: Rumor Mill News Reading Room, Current Archive As far as Wood County being a bellwether county, we do have a mixed group of people here. The Epoch Times Thu, 19 Nov 2020 21:41 UTC He won Ohio by eight, Iowa by eight. . Those dollars wont be there, because people will be buying gas. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Also, spare a thought for Webster County in Georgia. 0:00 0:00. I think its very political right now, honestly. RIDGWAY, Pa.Tucked into a wooded valley in north-central Pennsylvania is the bellwether borough of Ridgway, the county seat . DATA: Trump Won 95% Of Bellwether Counties, Making Biden Win Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. HOW THE SPECTER OF COMMUNISM IS RULING OUR WORLD. Even Heidi Mackey, the clerk inside the station who said she hasnt voted since 2018, said shell likely vote in the May 3 primary. Articles after the 2020 election examining the predictive power of previous bellwethers are found in other sources, including the Wall Street Journal and the Epoch Times. Epoch Times Canada (@EpochTimesCan) November 16, 2020. In 2020 the expansion also began generating $898,000 a year for the next 15 years for Lake Local Schools. . Plastic cups and straws also have been hard to come by because they require natural gas in their manufacturing process. In West Terre Haute, across the Wabash River from Terre Haute, Bobby Tisdell, a 38-year-old forklift driver, plans to cast his first vote on Election Day. The researchers also mapped all U.S. counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scoretheir record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. Not as large or as well-known as its more eastern cousin, Luzerne County, where much of the election attention has been focused, Elk County is just as accurate in predicting who will be the next commander in chief. He thinks the current criminal justice system imprisons too many people. Longtime Rep. Marcy Kaptur, a Democrat who has been in Congress since 1983, is running for reelection; Teresa Gavarone and J.R. Majewski are competing in the GOP primary. You have to take the lesser of two evils. How could the 'bellwether counties' get it so wrong? What you need to know, summarized in one email. He is his own worst enemy.. They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. Miller doesnt hesitate to say that he isnt happy with the current state of affairs and he doesnt know who hell vote for in the next presidential election. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. He considers Trump pro-life. Thats about 43 percent of the eligible voters in the country, according to a. of nonvoters overseen by professors at Tufts University and Stony Brook University. No one who spoke to The Epoch Times had anything positive to say about Wolfs continued shutdowns in the state. And its just so easy to snowball it to where chances are, if youre not very careful and work very hard in the other direction, you may just [continue a life of crime].. Hamilton had already cast his vote for Biden on the first day of early voting. Now the places emerging as possible new bellwethers have more racially diverse populations. Fact check: What's true about the 2020 election, vote counting The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. The economy and good-paying jobs always have been an issue up here.. Taking the pulse in Vigo County, Indiana, which has voted for the presidential winner in all but two elections over the past century, Cara is an Orange County, New York-based Epoch Times reporter. Im not happy with either party. Those who believe that Donald Trump won the 2020 presidential election have held up his victories in many bellwether counties as evidence of electoral fraud. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000. If you own a business and you have a bad summer where it rains every weekend, youre out of luck.. The simple answer is that chance effects can be much greater than most people realize. 2016 Trump. About The Author. bellwether counties epoch times And to force somebody to do it, it just makes even less sense, because this country is supposed to be free.. In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend. Michael Sakal is a former reporter for The Epoch Times. January 4, 2021: Rep. Jordan tweets an Epoch Times article about his effort to challenge Electoral College votes. 2020: Trump - 59.1%, Biden - 38.5. Were not going to be able to afford this Democratic regime. A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. On . Richard Zulch, an Army veteran who served in Vietnam as a combat engineer from 1969 through 1971 and is the quartermaster for Veterans of Foreign Wars Post 4811 in Bowling Green, said he has been able to see the political landscape from both sides of the fence. An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections - SSRN Its too big. Many counties in states that have reliably voted for one party for many cycles are home to counties which have almost always voted for the winner of the election; for example, South Carolina has two strong bellwether counties despite being a reliably Republican state, and California has a number of strong bellwethers in its central valley despite being a reliably Democratic state.. Fannin plans to vote in person and is pretty sure Trump will win a second term, but hes concerned about the integrity of the mail-in ballots. But the thing that stuck out in my head, every time I read or listened to anything about [Obamas] policies, I saw such a deep revival of division, causing division between the blacks and the whites again, Jacobs said on Sept. 17. Its a county where the residents are proud of its powdered metal factories and where the Ford F-Series is as ubiquitous as the American flag. Thats part of what has made it an effective bellwether, at least in recent decades, he said. I dont feel good about the leadership in our country right now.. bellwether counties epoch timesjury duty summons date vs reporting date Get Business Credit and Financing To Grow Your Business!!! I think thats what the world needed. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. Results from 28 counties have still not been finalized, per Brookings Institution. I look at the picture of what hes doing for my country.. Visual inspection suggests that, like other counties, they voted in 2020 roughly as they did in 2016; given this (and given that many of these counties went solidly for Trump in 2016), it is unsurprising that Biden won only one of them. Fact check: These 5 election statistics do not discredit Joe - Yahoo! It bisects six counties Hillsborough, Polk, Osceola, Orange, Seminole and Volusia but is far bigger than the . Our mission is to put on honest elections.. She thinks economic distress from COVID-19 will fuel more unrest. Seasonal businesses such as ferries, dairy docks, ice cream stands, Cheesehaven, and fudge factories, are closed. bellwether - Political Dictionary Why are you trying so hard to get this one guy out of office? he said of the disproven Russian collusion accusations and the presidents impeachment. For example, if we call a county a bellwether if it has one less correct match than the number of elections in a sequence, we will get nearly 19 bellwethers even in a set of eleven elections, and in a set of seven elections, we will see 197 bellwethers far more than the 27 we would find under our assumptions when we require a bellwether to have an unblemished record of predictive success. But Myers doesnt think Biden is respectful to Trump either. The United States needs to get back to where were responsible, energy independent, and get away from the thought process of these liberal socialists in office., Government is out of control, he added. He also believes many local Biden voters made the decision to vote for the Democratic candidate years ago, but theyre not going to be vocal about it.. I just got on Social Security disability, because I cant work anymore. And the media is just taking it overboard., Shepherd said of Trump: I do know that he is not a selfish person. The 19 bellwethers tend to be poorer, whiter, older, and less educated than the rest of the country, according to an August paper by researchers from the University of Denver and University of New Hampshire. Kyiv City Ballet US Premiere | Dance at Northrop The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the nineteen counties which have always voted for the winning candidate, they said. He cares about the American people.. The farther we get from the November election, the more time data analysts and others have to examine the most unlikeliest of election victories by Democrat Joe Biden. Before the 2020 election, Clallam was one of 19 counties with an unbroken record of voting for the winning presidential candidate since 1980. Given the global context of Russias invasion of Ukraine, they believe higher gas prices and inflation is coming, and theyre not happy about it. I cant lead that kind of lifestyle.. I find that hard to believe. I think a lot of us are fighting against socialism. That is a very good thing to have. I am under that impression. The price of gas at the Marathon gas station in Port Clinton was $3.39 a gallon on Feb. 22 whenDave Beggs, anarmy veteran and retired City of Port Clinton heavy equipment operator, pulled in. When he became a Christian, he struggled with his unions blind support for Democratic candidates, most of whom arent pro-life, he said. That was a blow to the area, Miller said about Peloton ending its plans for a $400 million project. Nestled along Lake Erie in the northwest of the state between Toledo and Cleveland, the area has a population of 40,364, according to the 2020 Census. dionisia pacquiao net worth; leer un archivo excel en sql server; alix pasquet iii relationship; american gold eagle type 1 vs type 2; sniper spotting scope; We have vendors and suppliers we contract with, Chamberlin said. Westmoreland is the only one of the counties in the South, Clallam is the only one on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. What are they going to do about gun rights? he said. We just couldnt believe that Trump had lost.. A 75-year-old retiree who owned a transportation and logistics business didnt want to be named and told The Epoch Times hes been skeptical of government since he was 30. Shepherd said being able to bear arms is of particular importance now and she fears Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden would restrict that right. He said hes concerned but hopeful for the future. Miller cited seeing some retail and light industrial development around the county in recent yearsa Bass Pro Shops store in Bowling Green, a 1 million-square-foot expansion for First Solar in Perrysburg in 2018, and downtown revitalization in Bowling Green. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. And it can happen.. We need creative leadership, Miller said. Since then, he has been doing odd jobs, such as cutting grass or trimming trees for neighbors. Instead of guns and bullets, hes bringing our troops home, hes ending wars. His message to Trump is: Shut up and quit twittering. Martin plans to turn up at the polling booth on Election Day. And we just want that to continue. As a father, I would be curious about what my kids are doing.. I vote for whomever I think is going to do the better job, whether they are a Democrat or a Republican. The sentiments of those arriving at or leaving the Kroger grocery down the street in Port Clinton echoed those at the gas station. They take pride in going to work, owning their home, having that simple life. I dont think you should take that away from me.. We need to address the economy and safety and security, Hawker said. However, the political viewpoints of its residents are mixed as they have become more wary and leery of the government. Because the man made a lot of promises in 2016, and I think that he stood up and he kept every one of those promises that he could possibly keep, said Ron Fannin, 69, the local courthouse supervisor. Farming also is a big part of Wood County's make up in northwest Ohio. This includes personalizing content and advertising. In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. Of Wood Countys 92,119 registered voters, 9,479 of them are Democrats, 8,315 are Republicans, and 74,240 are independents, according to numbers from the Board of Elections. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Our infrastructure is in bad shape.. Second, when we examine a short string of elections, we do indeed, find that some counties go with the winner in all (or virtually all the elections). Jacobs, 58, a gift store manager in Ridgway, said she voted for Obama but didnt follow politics closely at the time. He didnt vote in 2016 either. Only one, Clallam County in Washington, went for former Vice President Joe Biden and only by about a three-point margin. It could be said that Ottawa County is one of the top bellwether counties in Ohio, if not the country. The morale of the people up there is bad. Our model also links this decline to increases in polarization. The median household annual income is approximately, In 2016, nearly 100 million eligible Americans didnt vote. The unhappiness and unsatisfactory conditions have spread similar to the way COVID-19 has, a truck driver by the name of Sam, who also was at Wee Willys, told The Epoch Times. Both Hidalgo and Valencia County, New Mexico, are close to 60 percent Hispanic, while Westmoreland County in Virginia is almost one-third black. Nothing has changed regarding the date of the May 3 primary election, Baumgardner said. Our politicians need to look on both sides of the fence and work together. It seems that Im having to think about whos lying the least, Myers said. Moreover, if we look at the political features of the bellwethers, we do not find them exclusively among counties that are highly politically competitive. Natural gas is a key ingredient in the process used to make the nitrogen-based fertilizer used on crops such as corn and wheat. This includes personalizing content and advertising. With a fragile economy following the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, Ohio is eyeing the May 3 primary election with Wood County at somewhat of a standstill. Your email address will not be published. Ottawa County along Lake Erie in northwest Ohio had one of the nation's longest streaks of supporting the presidential candidate who won the White House. Half the people are just wearing rags on top of their face. Ron DeSantis, Miller said he likes Gov. And its never going to come back.. Charlotte Cuthbertson is a senior reporter with The Epoch Times who primarily covers border security and the opioid crisis. We use cookies on this site to understand how you use our content, and to give you the best browsing experience. She sees the economy, trade, China, and the Middle East peace deal as top issues. That streak, which extended back to when the county supported Harry Truman became president ended in the 2020 Presidential Election when the Donald Trump won the county. Most of the jobs up here are part-time or seasonal. Jim Hoft. If I look back on my life, there is a swing toward the right, and then it swings back toward the left. Epoch Times, Gateway Pundit, and EveryLegalVote.com show a different electoral vote count for two reasons: They exclude states with pending litigation or recounts, subtracting votes from. In the May 3 primary, theres also a mix of familiar names with new candidates on the ballot. The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout 87 percent, compared to 76 percent nationally, according to census data. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. There is nothing we can do about it; the power is out of our hands..
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